{"id":7455,"date":"2020-07-26T17:42:35","date_gmt":"2020-07-26T16:42:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coop.eelv.fr\/?p=7455"},"modified":"2020-07-26T17:42:35","modified_gmt":"2020-07-26T16:42:35","slug":"croissance-exponentielle-un-defi-cognitif","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ecolo.ovh\/index.php\/2020\/07\/26\/croissance-exponentielle-un-defi-cognitif\/","title":{"rendered":"Croissance exponentielle, un d\u00e9fi cognitif."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Une croissance exponentielle se produit quand une quantit\u00e9 augmente d\u2019autant plus vite qu\u2019elle est d\u00e9j\u00e0 grande<\/em>. <em>C\u2019est le cas par exemple du nombre de malades infect\u00e9s par le coronavirus. En France, il double en moyenne tous les quatre jours. Au bout de huit jours, ce nombre est multipli\u00e9 par quatre, au bout de 24 jours, il est multipli\u00e9 par 64 et par 256 apr\u00e8s un mois. Donc rapidement, on obtient des nombres faramineux. U<\/em>n nombre de nouvelles infections qui double tous les quatre jours signifie que la moiti\u00e9 des personnes infect\u00e9es depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie l\u2019ont \u00e9t\u00e9 depuis moins de quatre jours&nbsp;! Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne d\u2019emballement est donc difficile \u00e0 appr\u00e9hender, le mod\u00e8le lin\u00e9aire d\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie restant une r\u00e9f\u00e9rence du commun des mortels. Ce<em> biais cognitif a d\u2019ailleurs eu un impact sur l\u2019adh\u00e9sion (difficile) aux mesures de distanciation physique.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>La rapidit\u00e9 du r\u00e9chauffement climatique constitue pour la Terre ce que la pand\u00e9mie est pour l\u2019humanit\u00e9&nbsp;: un bouleversement brutal, qui peut tr\u00e8s vite \u00e9chapper \u00e0 tout contr\u00f4le. Cette fois, l\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ment perturbateur n\u2019est pas un virus, mais l\u2019esp\u00e8ce humaine, en particulier sa fraction vivant \u00e0 l\u2019occidentale. L\u2019action humaine sur la Terre a un temps de doublement de l\u2019ordre de 40 ans, qu\u2019il s\u2019agisse de notre emprise sur les min\u00e9raux, sur les ressources \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, sur la biodiversit\u00e9 ou sur la pollution. L\u2019ennui pour la Terre, c\u2019est que cette \u00e9chelle est extr\u00eamement courte&nbsp;: les syst\u00e8mes vivants, les \u00e9cosyst\u00e8mes, sans parler de la g\u00e9ologie, ont des \u00e9chelles de temps \u00e9volutives qui sont plut\u00f4t de l\u2019ordre de cent mille \u00e0 un million d\u2019ann\u00e9es. Autrement dit, le parall\u00e8le entre la fulgurance de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid19 pour l\u2019humanit\u00e9 et la fulgurance du changement climatique pour la plan\u00e8te para\u00eet quasi-parfait, et il doit nous aider \u00e0 prendre conscience de l\u2019urgence qu\u2019il y a \u00e0 agir. Pour un \u00e9cologiste averti, le mirage des exponentielles n\u2019est pas une d\u00e9couverte. C\u2019est ce m\u00e9canisme qui avait \u00e9t\u00e9 mis en \u00e9vidence par le rapport de 1972 sur les limites de la croissance. L\u2019\u00e9volution trop rapide de la population humaine, de l\u2019emprise agricole, de l\u2019industrialisation, du pillage des ressources naturelles et des pollutions nous m\u00e8ne au d\u00e9sastre. C\u2019est ce m\u00eame m\u00e9canisme qu\u2019avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 mis en \u00e9vidence Malthus en 1798&nbsp;: la progression g\u00e9om\u00e9trique (exponentielle) de la d\u00e9mographie est en d\u00e9calage croissant avec la progression arithm\u00e9tique (lin\u00e9aire) des ressources alimentaires. On ne peut sortir de ce dilemme qu\u2019en ma\u00eetrisant la f\u00e9condit\u00e9 humaine.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Tout citoyen devrait comprendre ce que veut dire une exponentielle et en tirer les conclusions qui s\u2019imposent&nbsp;: il est imp\u00e9ratif d\u2019agir politiquement de fa\u00e7on radicale afin d\u2019instaurer une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 post-croissance.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Michel Sourrouille<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Coop\u00e9rateur EELV<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Poitou-Charentes<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Une croissance exponentielle se produit quand une quantit\u00e9 augmente d\u2019autant plus vite qu\u2019elle est d\u00e9j\u00e0 grande. C\u2019est le cas par exemple du nombre de malades infect\u00e9s par le coronavirus. En France, il double en moyenne tous les quatre jours. Au bout de huit jours, ce nombre est multipli\u00e9 par quatre, au bout de 24 jours, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"chat","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-chat","hentry","category-contributions","category-les-contributions-de-michel-sourouille","post_format-post-format-chat"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Croissance exponentielle, un d\u00e9fi cognitif. - Ecolo.ovh<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ecolo.ovh\/index.php\/2020\/07\/26\/croissance-exponentielle-un-defi-cognitif\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Croissance exponentielle, un d\u00e9fi cognitif. - Ecolo.ovh\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Une croissance exponentielle se produit quand une quantit\u00e9 augmente d\u2019autant plus vite qu\u2019elle est d\u00e9j\u00e0 grande. C\u2019est le cas par exemple du nombre de malades infect\u00e9s par le coronavirus. En France, il double en moyenne tous les quatre jours. 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